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Visualizing Unemployment In Seattle After $15 Minimum Wage
A little over a year ago, Seattle increased the minimum wage to $15 an hour. Those opposed to minimum wage increases argued that it would result in an increase in unemployment. Those in support argued that it would not, or in the alternative, the increase in unemployment would be negligible compared to the increase in real wages among the class of workers affected by the increase.
Here is U-3 unemployment data for the past five years (Jan. 2010-July 2015) for Seattle Washington (graphs via Google Public Data:)
Here is the labor force participation rate for the same period:
In the past year since the $15 minimum wage went into effect in Seattle, unemployment rate has actually gone down, while labor force participation has actually increased.
You can make what you want of this data. You could point out, for example, the the minimum wage is just one of many moving parts of the economy, and that the deleterious effects of the $15 minimum wage on employment was swallowed up by other factors. You could also argue that one year out is not long enough to realize systemic effects of a minimum wage increase, as many business owners may choose different approaches to react to the minimum wage increase in the short term other than reducing staff numbers.
Both of these arguments are fine. Really all you can tell from this data is precisely what it shows: within one year of Seattle increasing it’s minimum wage to $15, labor force participation is up, and unemployment is down. Do with that information what you wish.
